IMD Predicts Below-Average Monsoon Rains for 2026
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that monsoon rainfall in 2026 will likely be below normal, estimating it at 92% of the long period average (LPA) of 87 cm, with an error margin of +/-5%. This marks the first below-normal forecast in 11 years, raising concerns over agricultural output and economic growth. The forecast indicates a 35% probability of a deficient monsoon, with 51% of India's farmed area dependent on rain-fed sources. The prediction is influenced by El Nino conditions, which typically weaken monsoon rainfall. The last occurrence of below-normal rainfall was in 2023, also an El Nino year. The IMD is expected to provide an updated forecast by the end of May, which will include regional predictions and rainfall distribution.
Published 1 day ago • 13 Apr 2026, 05:44 PM IST