IMD Forecasts Below-Normal Monsoon at 92% of Long Period Average
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has projected a below-normal monsoon for the upcoming season, estimating rainfall at 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a margin of +/-5%. This forecast could impact India's rain-fed agriculture, which constitutes 51% of the farmed area and 40% of production. The LPA, based on data from 1971-2020, is 87 cm. While some regions in northeast, northwest, and south Peninsular India may experience normal to above-normal rainfall, the overall outlook suggests challenges for rural economies. The last below-normal monsoon occurred in 2023, also an El Nino year. Current conditions indicate weak La Niña transitioning to ENSO-neutral, with El Nino expected to affect rainfall more in the latter half of the season. Private forecaster Skymet also predicts below-normal rainfall, estimating it at around 94% of the LPA.
Published 1 day ago • 13 Apr 2026, 06:38 PM IST