IMD Predicts Below-Normal Monsoon for 2026 at 92% of Average
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts a below-normal monsoon for 2026, predicting rainfall at 92% of the 50-year average, with a model error of ±5%. This forecast follows last year's prediction of nearly 105% of the long-period average, while actual rainfall reached 108%. The southwest monsoon is crucial for India, providing over 70% of annual precipitation, yet only about 55% of the net sown area is irrigated. A decline in rainfall could adversely affect agricultural productivity and rural incomes. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India projects CPI inflation for 2026-27 at 4.6%. In a separate forecast, Skymet estimates seasonal rainfall at 94% of the long-period average, indicating a subpar monsoon. As of February 28, 2026, foodgrain stocks are at 60.09 million tonnes, exceeding stocking norms.
Published 2 days ago • 13 Apr 2026, 04:59 PM IST